Why not Blackwell?
I never claimed to understand people. But I'm pretty mystified by just how poorly Ken Blackwell is doing against Ted Strickland with barely a month to go before Election Day. George Bush won Ohio two years ago, with the Iraq war "quagmire" playing nightly on every news channel in the runup to the election. Everything else being equal, Blackwell should take all the votes Bush got two years ago. But he's tracking 13-20 points behind Strickland. Why? Strickland still beats Blackwell among black voters, but Blackwell is doing much better with this group than Bush did. So it is definitely Bush voters who are turning away from Blackwell. Is it as simple as the election being a referendum on Bush? It's not inconceivable. Bush's approval numbers are down since the '04 election, so there may be a number of soft Bush voters who are experiencing buyers remorse. But that doesn't explain the entire gap. I think there are four additonal reasons Blackwell is doing po...