Rushing to a Kerry Coronation?
Why were the exit polls so far off? Do Republicans vote after work?
Aside from the polls, when real numbers are in, it's interesting to see when states are called. As of right now, CNN has it Bush 254, Kerry 252, calling Wisconsin for Kerry despite just a 14,000 vote margin with 99% in. Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa still show as undecided. All have Bush leading.
Fox, on the other hand, has called Ohio for Bush, but has not called Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, or Wisconsin (CNN has called Nevada for Bush).
Fox seems consistent in that they haven't called these close votes for either side. Look at the numbers and try to figure out why CNN has called Wisconsin and not Ohio, New Mexico, or Iowa:
In Iowa, Bush has a higher vote lead than Kerry in Wisconsin, over a smaller voter base. Same with New Mexico.
I'll forgive CNN for not calling Ohio, since there is some vaguely theoretical chance Kerry could get every single provisional ballot vote and that they'll all be valid (where provisional ballots have been tried in the past, less than 20%, and as low as 7% have counted).
Aside from the polls, when real numbers are in, it's interesting to see when states are called. As of right now, CNN has it Bush 254, Kerry 252, calling Wisconsin for Kerry despite just a 14,000 vote margin with 99% in. Ohio, New Mexico, and Iowa still show as undecided. All have Bush leading.
Fox, on the other hand, has called Ohio for Bush, but has not called Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, or Wisconsin (CNN has called Nevada for Bush).
Fox seems consistent in that they haven't called these close votes for either side. Look at the numbers and try to figure out why CNN has called Wisconsin and not Ohio, New Mexico, or Iowa:
| Bush | Kerry | Precincts | |
| Iowa | 741,325 | 725,700 | 99 |
| Ohio | 2,794,346 | 2,658,125 | 100 |
| New Mexico | 335,331 | 323,691 | 99 |
| Nevada | 388,963 | 368,458 | 99 |
| Wisconsin | 1,466,963 | 1,480,256 | 99 |
In Iowa, Bush has a higher vote lead than Kerry in Wisconsin, over a smaller voter base. Same with New Mexico.
I'll forgive CNN for not calling Ohio, since there is some vaguely theoretical chance Kerry could get every single provisional ballot vote and that they'll all be valid (where provisional ballots have been tried in the past, less than 20%, and as low as 7% have counted).
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