Predictions (Part II)

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Unfortunately, I believe the vote count to be much closer than my friend Stephen does. My predictions:

Bush electoral votes: 270
Kerry electoral votes: 268
Switching to Red: Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico
Switching to Blue: New Hampshire, Ohio
Popular vote: Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.5
Senate: GOP picks up 2.
House: GOP nets 5.

Should Colorado split its vote, Lt. Kerry reports for duty (with Bush still winning the popular vote). I suppose the only consolation for such a circumstance would be the deafening silence on the topic of reforming the electoral college.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Sorry but here is the bad news

Bush 49.4%
Kerry 48.8

Bush - 274
Kerry - 264
Senate 54-46 Republicans
House - Republicans +4

Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada plus his "sure thing states - He will lose Ohio and Michigan and NH and NM.

The sleeper bet - CO splits its votes - Bush gets 5, Kerry gets for making the electoral college tied at 269 - House of Reps votes for Bush.

From B. Stroh
10:38 PM
Anonymous said…
Oh, I forgot about PA - Kerry carries.

P.S. If Kerry wins electoral college he could lose popular vote so Democrats have to defend the position they excoriated four years ago.

Rampant cheating in Ohio according to my brother - true Howard?
10:52 PM
Anonymous said…
Of course the "bad news' at the beginning of the first comment should have said "good news". I just used 'fuzzy math' the first time and thought my Kerry total was higher. - Stroh
11:02 PM
Howard Brooks said…
Yes to rampant cheating. See post above.

I believe they're still in court at this moment appealling the right for parties to challenge.
11:45 PM
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