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Showing posts from October, 2004

Predictions (Part II)

Unfortunately, I believe the vote count to be much closer than my friend Stephen does. My predictions: Bush electoral votes: 270 Kerry electoral votes: 268 Switching to Red: Hawaii, Iowa, New Mexico Switching to Blue: New Hampshire, Ohio Popular vote: Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.5 Senate: GOP picks up 2. House: GOP nets 5. Should Colorado split its vote, Lt. Kerry reports for duty (with Bush still winning the popular vote). I suppose the only consolation for such a circumstance would be the deafening silence on the topic of reforming the electoral college.

A Great Friday Night

It truly seemed like some kind of alternate universe right from the start. Thousands of midwesterners lined up around the block waiting to see George W. Bush. We waited an hour and a half to get through security, but nobody seemed to mind. The long line was comforting. So many W supporters in one place. Every snippet of conversation overheard was something pro-Bush or anti-Kerry. I felt perfectly free to openly crack jokes about the Democrats. I was in a conservative cocoon. There was no line-jumping despite the length of the wait, no rudeness, nothing but excitement. Everyone was on the same team. It was strange, but great. The event itself was fantastic. The ovation given to the President when he first arrived was deafening. I didn't think it would ever stop. Arnold Schwarzenegger was brief, but quite good. The President was truly on top of his game. He was relaxed, sharp, funny, and did a great job hammering John Kerry and his record. No stumbles, no strange tele-prompter

On the Stump

I guess one advantage of living in Ohio is that the President is here a lot. I get to go see him tonight. Unfortunately, the agenda does not include Mr. Schilling. Still, I'm quite excited. Will report back later.

Rather Ridiculous

My friends and family don't seem to understand my need to tune in to the CBS Evening News every once in a while. "I thought you couldn't stand Dan Rather?" "Why do you do that to yourself?" "I'm going in the other room. I don't want to listen to you watch that show..." I guess I like to complain. Tonight's broadcast was enough to tide me over for months. CBS aired what I considered to be 20 straight minutes of anti-Bush material. No, it wasn't a good news day for George, but there was a marked lack of balance in each story. The finishing touch on the night was another "What Does It Mean to You" piece, which ostensibly shows where each candidate stands on a particular issue. To be more accurate, the segment should be titled "No Matter Your Interest, Here's Why You Should Vote for Kerry." The issue today was hunting and fishing. The slant: Democrats are making inroads with "hook and bullet"

They did it

I have a hard time knowing where to begin or what to say. Up three games to none, I allowed myself to think about it yesterday. What if ? I felt the grip of the hex loosening. Sure, the Red Sox could have lost last night. And that could have given the Cards the sort of improbable momentum that propelled Boston to their four straight wins in the ALCS. But I realized there were only two possible outcomes: The Sox win the series, or the greatest collapse in sports history, immediately on the heels of the previous greatest collapse in sports history. The latter would be improbable, to say the least, and had it actually happened, it would have been a story to be told for generations. So the thought crept into my head: what will I do if they win? I didn't know. Given that I'd be watching at home I wouldn't jump up and down and scream. I kind of worried about it. I haven't lived in New England for almost ten years. The Patriots have won two Super Bowls in recent years. H

Me and My Sox

My beloved Boston Red Sox are up 2-0 in the World Series, and I am simply too dumbfounded and fearful to say much about it. Red Sox fans come in two flavors: Sun-is-always-shining optimists and world-is-about-to-end pessimists. In 1990, the Red Sox were down to Oakland 3-0 in the ALCS. A "sunny" friend of mine insisted our team was better, and we would win the series despite the odds. Not that they "had a chance" but that they would win. This is the same kind of person who, every spring, and after every three-game win streak, says "This is the year!" So what of The Curse? The strange thing is that the sunny-siders tend to believe in it as much as anyone else. The just think it's due to end this year (every year). On the other hand, you have us doom-and-gloomers. We don't have this attitude because we like being crotchety. On the contrary, many of us are considered optimists on most other subjects, and can have seemingly completely normal

Standing Firm

A nuclear Iran is a concern for the world, and one which Senator Kerry professed to be the most grave danger confronting America. The question is, what would he do about it? Asked directly about it in the town hall debate, he completely ducked the issue. Fortunately for the world, even if Kerry is elected President of the United States, somebody will do something about Iran. That somebody is Israel, and they have a very un-nuanced position: a nuclear Iran is not acceptable. Period. The LA Times has a great article today about Israel's take on the situation. The resolve shown by Israeli leaders is heartening. Israel would much prefer a diplomatic agreement to shut down Iran's uranium enrichment program, but if it concluded that Tehran was approaching a "point of no return," it would not be deterred by the difficulty of a military operation, the prospect of retaliation or the international reaction, officials and analysts said. Unfortunately, the United States

The Stage is Set

Congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals. 1946, 1967, 2004. Here we go.

Good news

As a Red Sox fan, I get nervous no matter how big my side's lead. This bit of news is having a reassuring effect, however: Al Gore is going to be campaigning in Florida for Kerry. Did nobody on the Kerry staff think "backfire?" Did nobody notice the global warming speech on the coldest day of the year? Half a dozen over-the-top speeches in the last six months? Are they more desperate or out of their minds?

Incredible

I'm enjoying the "Let's go Red Sox!" chant emanating from Yankee Stadium at this moment. Now that's great stuff. Quite a series, to say the least. I'm still in shock. After winning Game 4, I didn't want to jinx anything, so I kept quiet. And when they kept rolling, I certainly couldn't mess with success. Apologies for my silence. You couldn't script something like this. As I said in an earlier post, breaking the "curse", and doing it in style, would be going first through NY, then St. Louis. Mainly through New York. And what a way to beat them. Causing a Red Sox-like collapse by the Yankees is the stuff dreams are made of. Breaking the curse? Bucky Dent threw out the first pitch (a move that smacked of desperation, by the way). It couldn't have been any better if a foul ball hit Mookie Wilson in the face. To the game itself: though it was 8-1 when Pedro came out in the 7th, I was mystified. And I was very nervous when they sc

Yankees Suck

Mark, you're welcome. Obviously, I disagree with you. I find the chant of "Yankees suck!" during any random gathering of New Englanders to be a wonderful bonding kind of moment. It's fun to hate the big, bad Yankees. Where's the sport in hating the Red Sox? As Bill Simmons says, rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for the house in blackjack. I do understand not liking some of the fans. They are represented by a brillo-haired doofus named Dan Shaughnessy, who one week builds the team up to be of mythic proportions, only to preach doom and gloom when the lofty expectations set by himself and a few other nitwits do not come to fruition. "This is the year!" is followed by "They betrayed us." This guy invented "the Curse of the Bambino" and has helped a league of would-be neutral people across the country detest the Sox. Are the Sox actually cursed by Dan? If nothing else their fans certainly are.

Signing off

Sheffield just knocked one out after the A-Rod walk. 9-6. And as I type, Matsui (I really hate that guy) just smacked a double. Now they're bringing in Wakefield, who was supposed to start tomorrow. I think it's the right move, but if Wake gets rocked, what do you do? Time to turn off the computer and get more beer. Better luck next year?

Unbelievable

It feels like it's the eighth inning, but it's only the top of the fourth. Well the Sox rallied to tie it at 6. And now the Sox bullpen is doing its best to make sure I have a minor heart attack, as Ramiro Mendoza hit the first batter to begin the inning. Is he still getting a paycheck from the Yankees? Now Leskanic almost hit Jeter. Do we feel uncomfortable unless there are multiple baserunners before recording the first out? Nixon just made a great catch in right. Now a walk to A-Rod. I swear I'm turning it off.

Balk?

Well, it's only gotten worse. Three runs are in, a runner on second. Still nobody out. Can't remember the last balk I've seen, especially one that scored a run. Apparently the Sox just don't like having a lead. Their 1-run margin (their only lead of the series) evaporated without another out being recorded. I'm ready to turn it off...

Oops

OK, that last post was stupid. A-Rod's homer immediately after clicking "Publish" put me back in my place. Sheffield just walked. No one out. Gloom-and-doom time again.

Is blogging lucky?

Wow, big second inning. Up 4-3. Kevin Brown's looking like he did the last time we saw him. I refuse to get cocky, but the cracking open of a Bud Light and my laptop have not been the least bit harmful.

Nixon: Yard

3-2 thanks to Trot Nixon's bomb in the 2nd. I am NOT getting my hopes up, but am enjoying my beer more.

Ready to turn it off...

So we're only one inning in, but I'm not sure how much more I can stand. The Yankees did exactly what we hoped they wouldn't: pile up three in the first and take the crowd completely out of the game. But just when the Sox looked like they might have a two-out rally going, Manny Ramirez made a horrible decision to try to go from first to third on a base hit. The rule is never make the first or third out at third base. The fact that Manny is slow, Sheffield in right field has a great arm, and they're down by three should have undescored that rule. I'm distraught.

Hanson on the "nuisance"

VDH takes on Kerry's "nuisance" comment and the liberal mindset on the war on terror. A devastating critique. He believes Bush will win because most Americans no longer buy what the Democrats are selling: ...the Democratic party is run not by unionists, farmers, miners, truckers, and average folk, but by those rich enough not to have to make a living, and who wish out of either guilt or noblesse oblige to force the dumber upper middle class to be more sensitive, generous, or utopian. Americans also believe Europe has lost its way and is bogged down in a hopeless and soon-to-be scary task of legislating by fiat heaven on earth. Great stuff. As usual. Read the whole thing.

Putin and Kyoto

A couple of weeks ago I was unable to resist my impulse to wildly speculate as to why Vladimir Putin would entertain the idea of ratifying Kyoto. Shooting from the hip, I offered the following two reasons: What could the Russians be thinking? This can't possibly help their struggling market economy. Is that the point? Could it be that Putin wants the Russian economy to fail, so that a return to communism seems the only natural choice? The other possible explanation is that Russia is preying on European anti-Americanism. For over 50 years the United States and Europe benefited economically from their alliance. In a new world order, the Russians may see an opportunity to wedge themselves between America and Europe. If the U.S becomes the lone holdout from Kyoto, it is not hard to imagine a system of tariffs implemented to make U.S. goods next to impossible to buy in Kyoto-ratifying nations. It's also not hard to imagine Russia positioning itself to take advantage of such a

Bizarro World

Just to make sure I've got the story straight: Bush lied, saying Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program, when it had no such intentions. Bush is incompetent, because he allowed materials from Iraq's nuclear program to be removed from the country without Coalition forces noticing. Without a trace of irony, Reuters puts the following paragraphs in the same story: "The United Nations nuclear watchdog told the Security Council this week that equipment and materials that could be used to make atomic weapons had been vanishing from Iraq without either Baghdad or Washington noticing." "The United States and Britain said they invaded to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. Both countries now admit toppled ruler Saddam Hussein had no such weapons." "Diplomats in Vienna say the IAEA is worried that these facilities, which belonged to Saddam's pre-1991 covert nuclear weapons program, could have been packed up and sold to a country or militants in

He did better than the Sox

I suppose at this hour it's time to look for small victories. The Red Sox lost a tough one. Once again, Yankee starting pitching was incredible, Rivera was great in closing it out, and the Sox ran out of innings in between. Again, the Yankees capitalized on the opportunities given them, and the Sox did not. Runners on second and third, nobody out in the 8th, and they wound up with just one run. Worse news on the baseball front concerns Curt Schilling's ankle. Game 5 may not even be necessary, but if it is, Schilling will only appear if the Sox can find a miracle brace for his ankle that will keep a tendon in place. But on to happier news. Bush did not lose the debate. Whether he won is arguable, but I really don't think he lost. This debate on domestic policy was supposedly Kerry's strong suit (though conservatives would always have argued otherwise), but he provided no depth to the arguments we've been hearing for a year. Bush, on the other hand, was able

Yankees 10, Red Sox 7

Well it wound up a little more positive than it looked earlier. Mussina was incredible, Schilling was awful, and the Yankees seemed to have everything go right for them: bloop hits, productive outs, and Matsui on fire. The Sox had everything go wrong, including several defensive miscues, that while not errors, gave the Yankees extra bases. The Sox rally in the 7th and 8th wasn't enough to win, but it may restore some confidence in the team, especially should they find themselves down again. As much as I prefer the Boston rotation to New York's, if Curt Schilling is unable to perform up to his usual standard in Game 4 or 5, it would almost seem his acquisition last winter was all for naught. Pedro has been owned by the Yankees, and if that trend continues, we're left with Bronson Arroyo, a fine young pitcher but lacking in experience, and the erratic Tim Wakefield. I think the Sox might well try to bring Schilling back on short rest in Game 4, which would also le

Mark the Prophet

"I hope I'm wrong, but I expect John Kerry will constantly refer to Christopher Reeve's death. I expect he will lie about it, and say that he might have lived if Bush had only permitted more federal funding of embryonic stem cell research." -- Mark Rienzi, 10/11/04 "When John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk. Get up out of that wheelchair and walk again" -- John Edwards, 10/12/04

So it's ON

Congrats to Mark and Stephen on their team's victory over Minnesota. So we meet again in the ALCS, this time with a blog. Wednesday night will be tricky. Game 2 is opposite the third debate. Which rivalry is greater? Which cause more just? Which opponent more evil? I suppose logically I should record the debate and watch it straight through after the game. But I may push the limits of technology and the patience of and try the following DVR trickiness: Watch the debate. Put the game in the picture-in-picture box. When something happens in the game, pause the debate, swap to the game, rewind the play, then swap back to the debate and unpause. Now I've tried this in the past, with spring baseball and playoff hockey, and the results were not pretty. It was new to me, I was pushing the envelope of sane TV watching (obviously, I was by myself), and the system behaved as if Ted Kennedy were holding the remote, and crashed spectacularly. But isn't that the way it al

Ironic quote of the day (and Florida)

"I see disturbing signs today that some of our churches have been confused by wolves in sheep's clothing. How did someone else put their agenda in the front of the line?" -- Rev. Jesse Jackson Now that's priceless all by itself. But there's more. At the same church service that Rev. Jackson was dutifully warning churchgoers that there are those out there who would manipulate them, John Kerry trotted out the same line he repeats every time he sees a black audience, "Never again will a million African Americans be denied the right to exercise their vote in the United States of America." Of course, Kerry was not talking about Reconstruction or Jim Crow, he was talking about 2000 and Florida. Kerry has mimicked Jimmy Carter in so many other ways, why not on voter rights? Peter Kirsanow, member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, recently debunked Carter's Wall Street Journal editorial about the 2000 election. And if you haven't read it

And then there was baseball

Once again, a DVR issue in the Brooks household meant I missed a large portion of the game. This one however, was caused by my daughter finding the remote in the 5th inning (watching the game on delay), and pushing exactly the wrong button. I did get to see the 10th inning live, however, so how could I be too annoyed? I mercifully missed the Angels' comeback, and witnessed the Red Sox most significant walk-off home run in almost 30 years. Now, if the Red Sox are to end their longtime drought, should the road to a World Series championship not go through New York and St. Louis (the Cardinals beat Boston in seven games in both the '46 and '67 Series)? In 1984, the Boston Celtics beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA finals. The next year, the Lakers beat Boston. In 1986, the Celtics won their final championship, but as wonderful as it was, the fact that it came over the Rockets instead of the Lakers made it feel almost like cheating. Winning a championship while skirti

Much Better

The consensus analysis seems to be the second debate was a draw, with some, including Mort Kondrake and Bill Kristol, saying Kerry edged out Bush. I think they're wrong, but I appreciate their point that perhaps, in a vacuum, Kerry did slightly better. But the debate did not happen in a vacuum, it happened in the context of the 2004 election cycle, and following a truly miserable performance by Bush in the first debate. After Bush stumbled in Round 1, the race appeared neck-and-neck, with Bush losing ground since the Republican convention. My belief, going into Round 2, was that a loss would not hurt Bush as much as a win would help him. If Bush was a lousy debater in the first debate, and a lousy debater in the second, what would have changed? On the other hand, if Bush showed significant improvement over last time, he could go a long way in reassuring the voters who were leaning toward him after the convention, but became undecided after his last performance. Bush mor

Incredible

"Incredible" is the only word that came to mind after reading John Lumpkin's summary of the new Iraq Survey Group report. I got wind of what was actually in the report last night, and was curious as to the spin. The headline tells it all: "U.S. Report: Iraq didn't have WMDs". The story goes on in detail about the lack of WMDs, but skirts or avoids altogether the other issues contained in the report. The group's finding that Iraq had plans to restart its WMD program as soon as sanctions is lifted was covered (or obscured) this way, in the 15th and 16th paragraphs: Saddam's intentions to restart his weapons programs were never formalized. "The former regime had no formal written strategy or plan for the revival of WMD after sanctions," the summary says. "Neither was there an identifiable group of WMD policymakers or planners separate from Saddam. Instead his lieutenants understood WMD revival was his goal from their long

Playoff ball

A DVR malfunction in the Brooks household resulted in your correspondent missing the bulk of the drubbing his beloved Red Sox put on the Angels today. So I can't offer any real comment other than to say Mike Timlin has been a postseason machine. Stephen, say what you will about percentages, but wow, the Cardinals are stacked. The Yankees were not expected to beat Santana today, but given that their next three starters will be John Lieber, a still-injured Kevin Brown, and a questionable Orlando Hernandez, they could be in trouble. Still, I'll never count out the Yankees. I must admit I was impressed by Gary Sheffield's ESPN interview, taking a very sensible stand against the players union on drug testing. The human story of the playoffs so far is Jacques Jones, losing his father, planning to attend a funeral between playoff games, and hitting a home run in Game 1. Torii Hunter is some kind of Superman in the outfield. Unbelievable.

Forwarding address

Senator Edwards will be behind the woodshed until further notice. The contrast between the two debates is striking. John Edwards sounded exactly like John Kerry, and what worked for Kerry against George Bush was completely ineffective against Dick Cheney. Cheney knows policy detail like the back of his hand, and made that clear tonight. Cheney's attacks were slick and devastating. While Bush simply repeated "he changes positions" for the better part of 90 minutes, Cheney showed there's more than one subject open for criticism, and gave details to back up his attacks. I was tickled to hear Cheney explain the $87 billion "No" vote in the context of Howard Dean's ascent in the primaries. He brought up Edwards' S-corporation, and used it to rebut Edwards' criticism of rising Medicare costs. The "absentee Senator" attack was effective, as was his accusation that Kerry and Co. are denigrating our allies. Far more effective than Bush

It's 9/11, stupid

The Lowell Sun on Sunday endorsed President Bush for a second term (hat tip: Powerline ). In addition to a scathing indictment of Kerry's shape-shifting policies, The Sun reminds us what this war and this president are all about: President Bush told us the attacks must never happen again. Yet some of us are wavering because of the brave sacrifice of soldiers that our nation's security demands. Well, President Bush hasn't forgotten. Nor has he lost the courage and conviction to do what is right for America. I carried The Sun as a youth, and could not be more proud.

Don't dismiss Newsweek

The post-debate Newsweek poll has found that President Bush's 11-point post-convention lead has evaporated and he now trails Senator Kerry by 2 points. Conservatives are quick to note a striking difference between the two Newsweek polls, namely the number of Republicans and Democrats surveyed. In the 9/1-9/2 poll, Newsweek surveyed 374 Republicans 303 Democrats 300 Independents In the most recent poll, News week surveyed 345 Republicans 364 Democrats 270 Independents No wonder the drop for Bush! But unfortunately, that's not the whole story. When looking more closely at the data, it appears that Republican support eroded for Bush, Democratic support for Kerry inclined, and Independent voters moved away from Bush significantly. To conserve some blog space, I put my analysis at http://betterbanter.com/articles/newsweek_poll.htm The bottom line is that poll changes are significant, though less so than the networks would have you believe.

A universal test

Oh, come now, Mr. Kerry. As if it's not bad enough that the entire world must sign off on U.S. foreign policy, the Massachusetts senator offered this interesting explanation of his "global test" remark from Thursday's debate: "They're misleading Americans about what I said. What I said in the sentence preceding that was, 'I will never cede America's security to any institution or any other country.' No one gets a veto over our security. No one. "And if they were honest enough to give America the full quote, which America heard, they would know that I'm never going to allow America's security to be outsourced. That's the job of the president. "But I can do a better job of protecting America's security because the test that I was talking about was a test of legitimacy, not just in the globe, but elsewhere . Well that clears it up. Unfortunately for Mr. Kerry, the Vulcans are far too logical to sign on to his pla

Finding Policy

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"Now I've got that Iraq plan somewhere..."

Right way, wrong way, Kerry way

John Kerry has claimed, on numerous occasions, that Saddam Hussein was a threat, and that there was a "right way" and a "wrong way" to depose him. The "right way" was to go in with international support. The "wrong way", which was the path taken by President Bush, was to invade without sufficient international consent, taking along a rag-tag "coalition of the coerced and the bribed." It seems, in reality, that there was a right way, several wrong ways, and a "Kerry fantasy way". The right way was to take our case to the U.N, gather as much support as possible, and go ahead with the invasion. The wrong way would be to a) Go in without asking for support, or b) after deciding the invasion was essential to our national security, and taking the case to the U.N, scrubbing the entire mission because of a U.N. veto. The Kerry fantasy way seems to be that after taking the case to the U.N, holdouts France, Russia, and China would

The Times' Tubes

Today's New York Times contains a mammoth 10,000-word story chronicling the debate over Iraq's nuclear capabilities in the run-up to the recent war. Specifically, the debate centers on the purpose of 60,000 aluminum tubes ordered by Iraq. I'll try to sum up the debate as briefly and fairly as possible: In early 2001, Iraq attempted to buy 60,000 7075-T6 aluminum tubes from a manufacturer in Hong Kong. The tubes were to be machined to extremely tight tolerances. Such tubes, it was believed, were strong enough and light enough to be spun in a centrifuge at speeds necessary to enrich uranium. It was for this reason that Iraq was prohibited from importing 7075-T6 tubes of certain sizes. The CIA sounded the alarm. Investigation by the Energy Department found problems with the theory. The tubes did not seem to be the right size or shape for their intended function. The CIA shot back that while they may not match specifications for modern centrifuges used by developed nation

Nordlinger

Jay Nordlinger had about the same reaction as me to the debate, and gives some more detail about where the President failed last night. On a side note, I wonder the effects of spin-meisters spinning Bush's side last night. I was aghast watching Karen Hughes tell the world Bush slam-dunked the debate. Does that change anyone's mind who actually watched it? If I were a fence-sitting voter, and I watched with my own eyes Bush stumble through 90 minutes of debate, robotically repeating the same four paragraphs over and over, I'd think, "well, he didn't do too well." If I then saw everyone on his side saying what a great job he did, I'd be inclined to think, "well, then I guess their side doesn't have a whole lot to say." Maddening.

Horrible

There, I'll be the one to say it. I thought the President was horrible last night. Yes, he got across a few points, and hammered them home (ad nauseum). No, he didn't say anything that will come back to haunt him, and no, John Kerry did not really get off any memorable lines that will haunt the President later either. But Bush should have wiped the floor with him. He had so much on his side. So many facts and arguments about his record and his opponents. But he offered next to nothing to the American people. Nearly everything he said echoed exactly what he's said in 30-second sound bites for months. This was the opportunity to explain what we're doing in detail, and why Kerry's 30-second sound bites are off the mark. Instead, Bush simply cycled through 30-second clips again and again. Unfortunately for my wife, I like to talk to the TV during these things. At one point I was on the floor mumbling "no, no, no..." So after an hour of listening to me