Why not Blackwell?

I never claimed to understand people. But I'm pretty mystified by just how poorly Ken Blackwell is doing against Ted Strickland with barely a month to go before Election Day. George Bush won Ohio two years ago, with the Iraq war "quagmire" playing nightly on every news channel in the runup to the election.

Everything else being equal, Blackwell should take all the votes Bush got two years ago. But he's tracking 13-20 points behind Strickland. Why? Strickland still beats Blackwell among black voters, but Blackwell is doing much better with this group than Bush did. So it is definitely Bush voters who are turning away from Blackwell.

Is it as simple as the election being a referendum on Bush? It's not inconceivable. Bush's approval numbers are down since the '04 election, so there may be a number of soft Bush voters who are experiencing buyers remorse. But that doesn't explain the entire gap.

I think there are four additonal reasons Blackwell is doing poorly:

1. The state of the Ohio GOP. Bona fide scandals have riddled the Republican party in Ohio. Governor Taft is perhaps the most unpopular person in the state. The sad part is that no one has been a bigger burr in Taft's ass the last several years than Ken Blackwell. Taft has been indistinguishable from Democrats on his spending record, and Blackwell has made a name for himself trying to rein Taft in. Unfortunately, the simple R label next to both of their names will mean more than anything Blackwell has done or will do.
2. Blackwell stole the 2004 election. OK, I know he didn't, but many who would vote against a business-as-usual Strickland at least question the election, and will be unable to endorse Ken on election day. It proves that if a lie gets repeated often enough, it becomes true.
3. He believes in God. For real. Enough to make milquetoast believers uncomfortable. For those soft on Bush and soft on God, Blackwell's a hard choice.
4. Good old-fashioned racism. Yes, it still exists here in Ohio. I'd like to think it doesn't, and perhaps it doesn't make up a significant portion of the electorate, but I believe it's a factor. The left isn't the only side that has unsavory characters casting votes.

Barring a catastrophe for Strickland, Blackwell will emerge as the loser in November. Former Pittsburgh Steeler great Lynn Swann has no better chance against incumbent Ed Rendell in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. This leaves Michael Steele as the only other major black Republican candidate with a chance this year. While Steele has made a bit of a show of moving leftward to appeal to moderates in a Democratic state, it's worth reviewing his convention speech two years ago. He could be the real deal for Senate.