Our gut was right
I have to agree with Stephen's post about pulling Pedro. The Grady Little parallels are obvious, but what's interesting is how the same conclusion was reached two different ways. In Game 7 of the ALCS last year, Grady left Pedro to pitch the eighth, presumably because he lacked confidence in the bullpen. The bullpen, however, though much maligned throughout the year, was damn near perfect in the postseason. Further, Pedro was not and is not a horse. He does not eat up innings. He does not complete many games. He was near the end of his rope, and Grady was just hoping there was a little more left. After a little trouble, it should have been obvious he was done, but Grady did not take the hint, and the Yankees won the pennant.
After the season, Grady was fired. Not entirely because of Game 7 but because he was not a manager who looked at numbers. Theo Epstein wanted a guy who would run the club like an NFL coach and know every matchup, and prepare moves and countermoves based on well-studied statistics. Grady went by hunches.
Last night, as Pedro came out to start the eighth, already around 100 pitches, everyone but Terry Francona knew there wasn't much left. With six outs to go, a reliable closer in Keith Foulke who can go more than one inning if need be, why would Terry not lift Pedro for the lefthander Alan Embree to get the left-handed hitting Matsui? Especially with switch-hitting Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada following?
The answer, most likely, was in the numbers. Matsui is 4 for 9 against Embree, and prior to last nights game, 1 for 15 against Pedro. Also, Pedro's numbers in the eighth inning and after 90 pitches had been excellent. However, Pedro had pitched more than seven innings just twice all year. The strategy seemed to be, keep putting him out there until he's in trouble. The problem with that philosophy is that once he gets in trouble, it's too late. With a one-run lead, the margin of error is slim. More importantly, the psychological edge of getting the team's ace on the ropes swings momentum to the Yankees. You do not want the Yankees to smell blood.
Contrast this approach with Joe Torre's. Torre lifted Mussina after six, though he had allowed just five hits, as he was over the 100 pitch mark and Torre had confidence in his bullpen. He did not want to see Mussina on the ropes, and did not want the Red Sox to believe he was vulnerable. Last year, in Game 7, Torre lifted Roger Clemens after three, before the game got out of hand, knowing that if his bullpen could keep it close, his offense had a shot at coming back. And they did.
I was at Jacobs Field in Cleveland for that Game 5 in 1999 that Stephen mentioned. Pedro's 6-inning hitless performance out of the bullpen, coming off an injury, was the most spectacular thing I've ever seen. But this is not 1999, and a manager should never count on a player doing more than he's shown he could do in the recent past.
Torre has confidence in his team, and also knows the limits of his players. Little, and now Francona, have not exhibited confidence, and have pushed the limits of their star player, hoping for the spectacular. Most gamblers lose more often than not. Torre, playing it smart, has recently lost a World Series. But he's won more than he's lost. The Red Sox keep hoping for magic in a bottle, when the reality is that a team of human beings, with their combined skills and talents, and not one man aided by potions and crossed fingers, wins titles.
The Red Sox have a team that can win it all. They are lacking nothing, except perhaps a manager who knows what to do with them.
After the season, Grady was fired. Not entirely because of Game 7 but because he was not a manager who looked at numbers. Theo Epstein wanted a guy who would run the club like an NFL coach and know every matchup, and prepare moves and countermoves based on well-studied statistics. Grady went by hunches.
Last night, as Pedro came out to start the eighth, already around 100 pitches, everyone but Terry Francona knew there wasn't much left. With six outs to go, a reliable closer in Keith Foulke who can go more than one inning if need be, why would Terry not lift Pedro for the lefthander Alan Embree to get the left-handed hitting Matsui? Especially with switch-hitting Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada following?
The answer, most likely, was in the numbers. Matsui is 4 for 9 against Embree, and prior to last nights game, 1 for 15 against Pedro. Also, Pedro's numbers in the eighth inning and after 90 pitches had been excellent. However, Pedro had pitched more than seven innings just twice all year. The strategy seemed to be, keep putting him out there until he's in trouble. The problem with that philosophy is that once he gets in trouble, it's too late. With a one-run lead, the margin of error is slim. More importantly, the psychological edge of getting the team's ace on the ropes swings momentum to the Yankees. You do not want the Yankees to smell blood.
Contrast this approach with Joe Torre's. Torre lifted Mussina after six, though he had allowed just five hits, as he was over the 100 pitch mark and Torre had confidence in his bullpen. He did not want to see Mussina on the ropes, and did not want the Red Sox to believe he was vulnerable. Last year, in Game 7, Torre lifted Roger Clemens after three, before the game got out of hand, knowing that if his bullpen could keep it close, his offense had a shot at coming back. And they did.
I was at Jacobs Field in Cleveland for that Game 5 in 1999 that Stephen mentioned. Pedro's 6-inning hitless performance out of the bullpen, coming off an injury, was the most spectacular thing I've ever seen. But this is not 1999, and a manager should never count on a player doing more than he's shown he could do in the recent past.
Torre has confidence in his team, and also knows the limits of his players. Little, and now Francona, have not exhibited confidence, and have pushed the limits of their star player, hoping for the spectacular. Most gamblers lose more often than not. Torre, playing it smart, has recently lost a World Series. But he's won more than he's lost. The Red Sox keep hoping for magic in a bottle, when the reality is that a team of human beings, with their combined skills and talents, and not one man aided by potions and crossed fingers, wins titles.
The Red Sox have a team that can win it all. They are lacking nothing, except perhaps a manager who knows what to do with them.
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